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Earthquake Prediction and Effect Assessment. / April 29, 2009 /

Among natural disaster, earthquakes (EQ) rank third in victim number (16% of the death toll), rank second in economical losses (27%) to tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and storms, and rank last in predictability.

The NTs OMZ research activities enable date and site of probable EQ to be calculated by developed methods. These methods are based on using the seismo-geoefficiency events of certain solar processes that trigger EQ on the 14th or 21st day. To specify and localize a site of probable EQ there are used information technologies allowing acquisition, processing, and analyzing data from spacecraft designed to detect EQ forerunners in field structures of litho-atmo-ionosphere. Seismological monitoring makes possible revealing EQ pending signs:

  • Geothermal effects in pending zone of EQ source;

  • Cloud structures tracing activated fractures;

  • Variations of ionospheric plasma and associated electromagnetic effects.

To reveal EQ forerunners there are used the data from Terra, Aqua, NOAA, Meteosat, Champ, Demeter spacecraft and from prospective METEOR-M, CORONAS-FOTON and other spacecraft in the future.
The developed methods have been used in successfully realized seismic predictions in the following regions: Hokkaido, Turkey, Iran, California, Sumatra, and Kamchatka. In particular, in Sumatra since 21 December 2004 there have been detected primary indications suggesting a probable M7+EQ within 500km zone on 25 December ± 1 day using the METEOSAT-5 data at NTs OMZ. At NTs OMZ there is available a unique base of images of cloud structures with seismo-indications that contains more than 300 satellite images of December 2004 M+9 and March 2005 M=8.7 Sumatra EQ.
EQ effect assessment may be carried out using image data of very high resolution from the operative RESURS-DK1 spacecraft.
Project: «Operational Monitoring of Earthquake Forerunners»

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