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Analysis of attributes of the preparation of earthquake disaster in Haiti.. / January 29, 2010 /

Developed by a group of Russian researchers forecast the catastrophic earthquake in C. America justified. How did it do? First of all, it is based on the concept of seysmotektogeneza and developed on the basis of its methodology for analyzing characteristics of earthquake preparation and calculation of their parameters (Science in Russia, 2009, № 6). Secondly, was formed Earth-space system of geophysical monitoring and data collection. It includes space-based remote sensing and meteorological observations, the unique station gravity measurements in Tula (developer of hardware and director of the Center «forecast» Dr. Martynov OV) and proton measurements in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (the developer and researcher Head, DA Kuznetsov, director of the distant school «Kosmometeotektonika» Bobrowski VS). Collection and analysis of geophysical data was carried out by specialists and experts NTs OMZ (supervisor Doda LN, thematic processing and graphics Stepanov IV). On the basis of the data were formed by rotating classes, telluric, proton, gravity and cloud features of seismotectonic indicator on satellite imagery (Annex 1.5, respectively).

The first sign of a possible catastrophic earthquake was powerful anomaly gravics 8-15.12.2009 at facilities in Tula. These anomalies signaled the anomalous mass transfer in the Earth’s body that should have been reflected in the Chandler motion of the pole. Almost all classes of signs were also detected anomalies. The second stage of the process was identified anomalous 26-31.12. Detected on satellite imagery of clouds seysmoindikatory 30-31.12 allowed to localize the likely area at the Caribbean plate (Annex 5). Cloud indicator A (30.12.09) on satellite imagery from the Terra 30.12.2009 at 16:10 length of 1000 km given the potential magnitude M = ln1000 ~ 6.9. The real was M7.0. On a possible earthquake in Haiti was a long-term forecast from 2007 by E.Calais and P. Mann, based on anomalous tectonic shifts on the GPS-observations. He was taken into account when preparing our forecast and space monitoring of the region Ts America. Individual elements of geophysical conditions are presented in Appendix 5.

Further analysis will be given in subsequent communications on the site of the Center.

Annex 1 (pdf, 403,8 kb)

Annex 2 (pdf, 395,4 kb)

Annex 3 (pdf, 195,3 kb)

Annex 4 (pdf, 448,8 kb)

Annex 5 (pdf, 626,2 kb)

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