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The results of the third phase of the Mediterranean seysmic forecast experiment.. / November 15, 2010 /

In RES 09/10/2010 has been declared the forecast of a possible of a Earthquake possibility with M7.0 in the areas of R = 7 ° with the center (40 °; 10 °) in Italy (40 °; 25 °) in Greece. Date of possible implementation — until October 1. During this period, significant events in the zones has not happened. Therefore, in accordance with the methodology of forecasting "18.10.2010 forecast extended until 11/05/2010 with the same parameters, but the magnitude has been reduced from 6 to 7. Powerful argument in favor of prolonging the forecast was the emergence of new seismomagnetic meridians run:

1) 10/17/2010 204 ° — VN2 (35.26) — 114/-66 — P6 (02) — (-66/114) — 31.10 or 7.11 (m1)
2) 23/10/2010 — 210 ° — BF2 (24) — 120/-60 — VR7 (24) — (-105/75) — M0 (24) — (-150/30) — H3 (46) — 75 / -105 — 6 or 13.11
3) 24/10/2010 — 211 ° — P6 (24) — (-59/121) — 7.11 or 14.11

Meridian (-150 ° / 30 °) gave a new predictive R = 7 ° zone P3 (Annex 1) with the dates of implementation of 6 or 13.11 ± 2 days. It is in this zone 03/11/2010 3 events occurred with M5.1/5.4, and Earthquake in Serbia led to the victims, the victims and destruction:

1) 03.11.201 — 00:56 — (43.7, 20.7) — M5.4 — H10 — Serbia (s1)
2) 11/03/2010 — 02:51 — (40.4, 26.3) — M5.1 — H10 — app. Turkey
3) 03.11.201 — 18:13 — (40.0, 13.2) — M5.1 — N466 — m. Tyrrhenian

Earthquake in the Serbian town of Kraljevo (70 thousand inhabitants), which occurred on November 3, hurt more than 4 thousand buildings, including 310 completely uninhabitable. 2 people killed, 50 more were injured.
During the evaluation period there have been powerful Earthquake in the Gulf of California on October 21 with M6.7 and catastrophic Earthquake on about. Mentawai (Sumatra) with 10.25 M7.7:

4) 10/21/2010 — 17:53 — (24.8, 109.2) — 6.7 — 10 — Hall. California (s2)
5) 10/25/2010 — 14:42 — (-3.5, 100.1) — 7.7 — 20 — Fr. Mentawai, Indonesia

For both events, anomalous geophysical features. From the resulting Erthquake tsunami in the coastal zone Pagayskih island killed more than 500 people. Tsunami Warning System has not worked. But even if the buoy was amended to declare the alarm was too late. Pagayskie Islands are located very close to the epicenter and the waves came to them for just 5-10 minutes.
Thus, in the area were predictive July 3 events, the date coincided. Magnitude M5.1/5.4 differ from those stated in the M6-7, but went on total power.

Annex 1 (pdf, 155.5 Kb)

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