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About the realization of the forecast and the devastating earthquake in New Zealand.. / February 24, 2011 /

According to our forecast of 16.02.2011 at the eastern boundary of the Australian plate on 02/21/2011 two powerful earthquakes has occurred at the Southern Fiji islands and in New Zealand. Moreover, the earthquake in New Zealand has led to numerous victims (more than 75 people were killed on 02/23/2011 and up to 300 are missing). The total damage is estimated of 12 billion dollars.

Analysis of the geophysical indicators of preparation and start-up of a powerful earthquake is given in Annex 1. Almost on February 20-21, anomalies were observed in all analyzed classes of indicators.

Cloud seismotectonic indicators were detected on the satellite imagery of February 12. Their analysis is given in Annex 2. Seismomagnetic earthquake start-up meridians along the eastern boundary of the Australian plate has determined the potential dates of 02/19 or 02/26 ± 2 days. and 02/16 or 02/23 ± 2 days, and possible expected zones P2, P3, P4. Powerful events took place on February 21 at two of expected zones — P2 and P4:

1. 21/02/2011 — 10:57 — (-26.1, 178.4) — M6, 4 — N540 — Southern Fiji Islands
2. 21/02/2011 — 23:51 — (-43.6, 173) — M6, 3 — H5 — New Zealand

In areas of P1 and P3 we do not exclude the possibility of more powerful earthquakes. It should be noted that at the coast of Sumatra in the P1 zone occurred two moderate events with M5,3.

Analogue of the current situation is July 2009 and its analysis is presented in a message on the website of 07/15/2009. At that time on July 15, 2009 in New Zealand powerful earthquake with M7,6 has occured. As the closest analogue it can be considered the event 03/09/2010 — 16:35 — (-43.5, 172.1) — 7,0 — 5 at the distance of ~ 50 km from this earthquake epicenter.

Annex 1 (pdf, 604,2 Kb)

Annex 2 (pdf, 869,3 Kb)

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